Sport
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Will Alexandre Pantoja be the UFC Flyweight Champion on December 31, 2026?
45%
Limited history-3.5pp
24h activity $652Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
0%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
-0.2pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.2pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $1K and 24h activity is $191. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 45.0% | -3.5pp | $1K | active |
| Joshua Van | 44.5% | -5.5pp | $814 | active |
| Amir Albazi | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Tim Elliott | 0.3% | — | $1K | active |
| Asu Almabayev | 0.1% | -0.2pp | $1K | active |
| Manel Kape | 2.0% | -1.4pp | $2K | active |
| Brandon Moreno | 0.1% | -0.1pp | $750 | active |
| Tatsuro Taira | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Steve Erceg | 0.1% | — | $691 | active |
| Kyoji Horiguchi | 0.1% | — | $2K | active |
| Brandon Royval | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
Probability sum: 92.3% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the official UFC Flyweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
45%
45%
0%
0%
2%
0%