Current implied probability
0%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 4.1% | -0.1pp | $1K | active |
| Arman Tsarukyan | 0.1% | — | $952 | active |
| Islam/None in 2026 | 94.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Ilia Topuria | 1.3% | — | $2K | active |
| Alex Pereira | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Khamzat Chimaev | 2.3% | +1.7pp | $1K | active |
| Joshua Van | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Petr Yan | 0.7% | — | $1K | active |
| Tom Aspinall | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Alexandre Pantoja | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $1K | active |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0.1% | — | $796 | active |
| Dricus Du Plessis | 0.3% | -0.05pp | $1K | active |
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0.1% | — | $937 | active |
| Max Holloway | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0.1% | — | $1K | active |
Probability sum: 103.4% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)
This market will resolve according to the next UFC fighter to be ranked 1st in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings, following Islam Makhachev. If Islam Makhachev remains #1 in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings through December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no next UFC fighter to be ranked 1st in the Pound-For-Pound rankings within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Islam/No Next #1 in 2026”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
4%
94%
1%
0%
2%
0%