Crypto
Signal: LowMarket data current
Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?
29%
Limited history
Lifetime volume $149KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Current implied probability
2%Recent probability movement (down 1.9pp) is weak, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
2%
24h Change
-1.9pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability changed slightly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.9pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30, 2026 | 2.0% | -1.9pp | $19K | active |
| December 31, 2026 | 28.5% | — | $7K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 55.5% | -0.5pp | $2K | active |
| December 31, 2027 | 79.3% | +2.2pp | $1K | active |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | +0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Arc (https://x.com/arc) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Arc, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Sept 2026, 05:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
29%
56%
79%