EAEventAlpha
Tech / AI

Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

80%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTCLow-confidence move-1.0pp (24h)

Probability changed modestly over 24h. Signal quality is low because a confidence cap is active in the latest market state.

Signal: Low

Current

80%

24h Change

-1.0pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

22

0%25%50%75%100%0:005:0011:0016:0021:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 1.0pp. Liquidity is strong, but the shift is too small to treat as a meaningful consensus change.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
80.0%
No implied probability
20.0%
Liquidity
$8K
Market Activity
$155K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?

Move attribution

Not checked yet

Move attribution has not been checked for this market yet.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the public valuation of Anthropic surpasses the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For Bitcoin, CoinGecko's data for BTC will be used, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/bitcoin. If CoinGecko stops showing relevant data, data from CoinMarketCap will be used instead. For Anthropic, any public valuation, or private funding round that values the company will be considered. To qualify, the valuation must be explicitly confirmed by Anthropic or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. The resolution source will CoinGecko and Anthropic's official communications; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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