EAEventAlpha
Tech / AI

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-2.8pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 2.8pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is down 2.8pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.5%
No implied probability
99.5%
Liquidity
$7K
Market Activity
$181K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 22:28 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 23:38 UTC

What this market asks

Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?

Current market read

This market assesses whether any Anthropic Claude model will achieve a score of at least 45% on the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard by June 30, 2026. It will resolve to 'Yes' if such a score is listed, and 'No' otherwise. The resolution source will be the official leaderboard.

Key takeaways

  • current market-implied probability of 0.45%
  • 24h movement of -2.8%
  • category context in tech-ai

Risks & uncertainties

  • Resolution details depend on the leaderboard, which may not be updated frequently.
  • The market is still active and has not closed.
  • Current market-implied probability may change as new information becomes available.

Resolution summary

This market will resolve based on the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard. It will resolve to 'Yes' if any Anthropic Claude model scores at least 45% by the specified date; otherwise, it will resolve to 'No'. No separate resolution-source field is stored; resolution details are based on the market description.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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