Loading the latest market intelligence…
Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition. Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required. If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time. Indicators of de facto authority may include control over the armed forces and security services; control over executive ministries and state administrative institutions; enforcement of national laws; issuance of binding national directives; and effective control over the capital and core state infrastructure. Symbolic status, foreign recognition without domestic control, nomination without effective authority, or expired prior service will not qualify. If no individual exercises effective governing control at the specified time, this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting assessing who exercises effective governing authority at the specified time.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mojtaba Khamenei | 82.7% | -0.1pp | $78K | active |
| Reza Pahlavi | 2.8% | -0.5pp | $174K | active |
| Mustafa Hijri | 0.1% | — | $120K | active |
| Ali Motahari | 0.1% | — | $105K | active |
| Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf | 0.7% | +0.05pp | $113K | active |
| Ahmad Vahidi | 0.9% | — | $101K | active |
| No Head of State | 4.0% | -0.1pp | $100K | active |
| Reza Pirzadeh | 0.1% | — | $120K | active |
| Hassan Shariatmadari | 0.1% | — | $106K | active |
| Massoud Rajavi | 0.1% | — | $128K | active |
| Nasir Hosseini | 0.1% | — | $122K | active |
| Gholam-Ali Haddad-Adel | 0.1% | — | $129K | active |
| Sadegh Larijani | 0.1% | — | $115K | active |
| Mostafa Pourmohammadi | 0.1% | — | $108K | active |
| Maryam Rajavi | 0.1% | — | $128K | active |
| Mohammad Khatami | 0.1% | — | $116K | active |
| Seyed Hossein Mousavian | 0.1% | — | $110K | active |
| Alireza Arafi | 1.9% | — | $91K | active |
| Hassan Khomeini | 0.6% | — | $106K | active |
| Mahmoud Ahmadinejad | 1.5% | — | $97K | active |
| Masoud Pezeshkian | 0.6% | — | $103K | active |
| Hassan Rouhani | 0.7% | — | $108K | active |
| Abbas Araghchi | 0.4% | +0.05pp | $109K | active |
| Muhammad Mirbaqiri | 0.3% | — | $109K | active |
| Saeed Jalili | 0.1% | — | $111K | active |
| Ali Asghar Hejazi | 0.1% | — | $115K | active |
| Ahmad Hosseini Khorasani | 0.1% | — | $107K | active |
| Mohsen Araki | 0.1% | — | $113K | active |
| Sadegh Mahsouli | 0.1% | — | $123K | active |
| Navid Shomali | 0.1% | — | $124K | active |
| Ali Larijani | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Mohammad Pakpour | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: 99.7% (informational; not an arbitrage claim)