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Last recorded probability
27%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
27%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 23 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Micah Lasher | 73.5% | +6.5pp | $36K | awaiting resolution |
| Alex Bores | 27.0% | -6.5pp | $48K | awaiting resolution |
| Jack Schlossberg | 0.9% | +0.3pp | $55K | awaiting resolution |
| Brad Lander | 0.1% | — | $28K | awaiting resolution |
| Liz Krueger | 0.1% | — | $26K | awaiting resolution |
| Scott Stringer | 0.1% | — | $26K | awaiting resolution |
| Lina Khan | 0.1% | — | $26K | awaiting resolution |
| Julie Menin | 0.1% | — | $26K | awaiting resolution |
| George Conway | 0.1% | — | $23K | awaiting resolution |
| Chelsea Clinton | 0.1% | — | $37K | awaiting resolution |
| Brad Hoylman-Sigal | 0.1% | — | $25K | awaiting resolution |
| Cameron Kasky | 0.1% | — | $26K | awaiting resolution |
| Keith Powers | 0.1% | — | $28K | awaiting resolution |
| Liam Elkind | 0.1% | — | $27K | awaiting resolution |
| Carolyn Maloney | 0.1% | — | $25K | awaiting resolution |
| Erik Bottcher | 0.1% | — | $25K | awaiting resolution |
| Gale Brewer | 0.1% | — | $27K | awaiting resolution |
| Cynthia Nixon | 0.1% | — | $25K | awaiting resolution |
| Andrew Cuomo | 0.1% | — | $26K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.