Politics
MediumMarket data current
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
0%
Limited history
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Current implied probability
0%Market activity is moderate — moves should be interpreted with standard caution.
Signal: MediumCurrent
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
94
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 7 Nov 2028, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pete Hegseth | 0.5% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Elon Musk | 0.7% | — | $1.7M | active |
| Ivanka Trump | 0.5% | — | $690K | active |
| JD Vance | 20.3% | — | $507K | active |
| Glenn Youngkin | 0.7% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Wes Moore | 0.8% | — | $262K | active |
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
1%
0%
20%
1%
1%
| Michelle Obama | 0.7% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Pete Buttigieg | 2.4% | — | $501K | active |
| Greg Abbott | 0.8% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Josh Shapiro | 2.6% | +0.1pp | $432K | active |
| Thomas Massie | 1.1% | — | $565K | active |
| Nikki Haley | 0.6% | — | $2.1M | active |
| Kamala Harris | 4.8% | -0.1pp | $320K | active |
| James Talarico | 0.7% | — | $1.0M | active |
| Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 1.6% | — | $181K | active |
| LeBron James | 0.3% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Eric Trump | 0.3% | — | $2.2M | active |
| Tulsi Gabbard | 0.7% | — | $600K | active |
| Marco Rubio | 12.4% | -0.1pp | $422K | active |
| JB Pritzker | 0.6% | — | $643K | active |
| Zohran Mamdani | 0.3% | — | $1.9M | active |
| Jon Ossoff | 8.8% | +0.1pp | $445K | active |
| Gavin Newsom | 12.6% | — | $424K | active |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | 0.3% | — | $1.5M | active |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 8.5% | -0.2pp | $364K | active |
| Gretchen Whitmer | 0.9% | — | $252K | active |
| Stephen Smith | 0.3% | — | $1.2M | active |
| Jamie Dimon | 0.7% | — | $974K | active |
| Jalen Brunson | 0.1% | — | $2.3M | active |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 1.1% | — | $940K | active |
| Andy Beshear | 1.1% | — | $366K | active |
| Ro Khanna | 1.1% | — | $229K | active |
| Ron DeSantis | 1.6% | — | $289K | active |
| Tom Cotton | 0.1% | — | $942K | active |
| Tucker Carlson | 1.4% | — | $355K | active |
| Tim Walz | 0.1% | — | $2.4M | active |
| Kim Kardashian | 0.3% | — | $2.0M | active |
| Doug Burgum | 0.1% | — | $705K | active |
| Mike Johnson | 0.1% | — | $801K | active |
| Josh Stein | 0.1% | — | $865K | active |
| John N. Kennedy | 0.1% | — | $945K | active |
| Alex Padilla | 0.1% | — | $707K | active |
| Adam Schiff | 0.1% | — | $988K | active |
| Abigail Spanberger | 0.1% | — | $836K | active |
| Elissa Slotkin | 0.3% | — | $807K | active |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 0.1% | — | $761K | active |
| Tim Scott | 0.1% | — | $840K | active |
| Rick Scott | 0.1% | — | $904K | active |
| Candace Owens | 0.1% | — | $970K | active |
| Donald Trump | 1.9% | +0.1pp | $708K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.