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Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market resolves to the nation represented by the player who finishes as the top goalscorer across all main tournament rounds of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official leader as determined by FIFA rules. If multiple leaders are announced then this market will resolve to the nation represented by the player who scored fewer goals from penalty kicks. If a tie still persists, this market will resolve to the nationality of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after August 2, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is no leader declared within that timeframe, the corresponding market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 20 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina | 0.1% | -7.8pp | $57K | awaiting resolution |
| France | 100.0% | +8.4pp | $32K | awaiting resolution |
| Spain | 0.1% | — | $19K | awaiting resolution |
| England | 0.0% | -0.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| Switzerland | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Morocco | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Norway | 0.0% | -12.0pp | $0 | resolved |
| Germany | 0.0% | -1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ivory Coast | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Belgium | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Brazil | 0.0% | -1.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Portugal | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Croatia | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Colombia | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Egypt | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| USA | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Netherlands | 0.0% | -1.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Mexico | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Canada | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Sweden | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Ghana | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Senegal | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Japan | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| Uruguay | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Ecuador | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| South Korea | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Turkiye | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Scotland | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Austria | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Bosnia and Herzegovina | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Algeria | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Paraguay | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| New Zealand | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Australia | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Iran | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| DR Congo | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Czechia | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Tunisia | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Cape Verde | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Uzbekistan | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Haiti | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Panama | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Curacao | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Jordan | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Saudi Arabia | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| South Africa | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Qatar | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| Iraq | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.