EAEventAlpha
Crypto

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20?

41%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCLow-confidence move+30.5pp (24h)

Probability moved sharply over 24h. Signal quality is low because activity is not strong enough for a high-confidence read.

Signal: Low

Current

41%

24h Change

+30.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

5

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun2 Jul3 Jul3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 30.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
41.0%
No implied probability
59.0%
Liquidity
$184
Market Activity
$5K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 23:37 UTC

AI brief may be stale. Current market metrics are shown above.

What this market asks

Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 20?

Current market read

AI summary is unavailable because stored summary data is older than the latest market metrics. Current market metrics are shown above.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to “Yes” if at least one coin launched in 2026 appears in the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market capitalization on CoinGecko at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” Rankings will be determined using CoinGecko’s market capitalization rankings (https://www.coingecko.com/). Stablecoins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), liquidity pool tokens, and synthetic representations of other assets will not qualify.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC

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