Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Weed rescheduled by December 31?
27%
Limited history+0.05pp
24h activity $35Closes 31 Mar 2026
Loading the latest market intelligence…
Current implied probability
22%Probability moved sharply over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
22%
24h Change
-26.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 26.5pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is $75 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 27.4% | +0.05pp | $6K | active |
| September 30 | 22.0% | -26.5pp | $75 | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -1.2pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if marijuana is rescheduled down from I to any other level (or is unscheduled completely) by the Drug Enforcement Agency of the United States (https://www.dea.gov/drug-information/drug-scheduling), between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
27%