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Last recorded probability
100%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
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100%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
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Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify. A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met: - The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria. - Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 May 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 15 | 100.0% | +0.5pp | $8.0M | awaiting resolution |
| June 30 | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $2.3M | awaiting resolution |
| July 31 | 100.0% | +0.4pp | $1.3M | awaiting resolution |
| December 31 | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $990K | awaiting resolution |
| August 31 | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $1.3M | awaiting resolution |
| October 31 | 100.0% | +0.4pp | $752K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.