EAEventAlpha
Geopolitics

US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?

0%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTCResolution update-0.7pp (24h)
Resolved market — this move reflects resolution, not a fresh probability signal.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.7pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is very low and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.0%
No implied probability
100.0%
Liquidity
Not available
Market Activity
$136K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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US x Cuba economic deal by April 30, 2026?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over trade, tariffs, sanctions, or the US embargo on Cuba, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Cuba by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A qualifying agreement may include, but is not limited to, US sanctions relief for Cuba or other easing of U.S. restrictions on Cuban imports, exports, shipping, payments, energy trade, or other trade-related activity. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Cuba as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. Only deals which are officially announced by both parties or confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify. Informal announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and Cuba, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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