Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by July 31?
0%
Limited history
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
3%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
9
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
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This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 0.1% | — |
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
Current implied probability
3%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: Low| $68K |
| active |
| December 31 | 9.5% | -2.0pp | $122K | active |
| September 30 | 5.0% | -0.5pp | $47K | active |
| August 31 | 3.0% | — | $4K | active |
| May 31 | 0.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Aug 2026, 00:00 UTC
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