EAEventAlpha
Politics

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?

0%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTCResolution update-0.1pp (24h)
Resolved market — this move reflects resolution, not a fresh probability signal.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.1pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is very low and 24h volume is $2K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.0%
No implied probability
100.0%
Liquidity
Not available
Market Activity
$1.6M
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

Follow with Market Radar

Get an email when this market has a meaningful stored probability move or appears in the Daily Brief.

Ukraine election held by December 31, 2025?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if national elections for the parliament and/or presidency of Ukraine are held between February 12 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is based on whether national elections are actually held in Ukraine within the specified dates. Merely scheduling an election will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". If elections are officially scheduled for a date outside of 2025, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Ukraine, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.