EAEventAlpha
Geopolitics

UAE x Qatar sever diplomatic relations in 2026?

5%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTCStable consensus-0.5pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 0.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

5%

24h Change

-0.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

14

0%25%50%75%100%10:0013:0017:0020:0023:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
5.0%
No implied probability
95.0%
Liquidity
$28K
Market Activity
$309K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if either the United Arab Emirates (UAE) or Qatar formally announces that they have suspended diplomatic relations with the other by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source will be official information from either respective government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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