Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "South Korea" before 2027?
8%
Limited history-4.8pp
24h activity $224Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Current implied probability
13%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
13%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea | 8.2% | -4.8pp | $3K | active |
| European Union | 7.6% | -1.0pp | $2K | active |
| India | 20.5% | — | $14K | active |
| Indonesia | 13.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Australia | 13.0% | — | $9K | active |
| Canada | 19.5% | -0.5pp | $10K | active |
| Israel | 16.0% | — | $10K | active |
| Pakistan | 11.0% | — | $10K | active |
| Argentina | 12.0% | — | $2K | active |
| Japan | 8.5% | — | $1K | active |
| Vietnam | 12.5% | — | $10K | active |
| Brazil | 8.1% | — | $10K | active |
| Mexico | 12.5% | — | $9K | active |
| Russia | 7.0% | — | $10K | active |
| United Kingdom | 11.5% | — | $11K | active |
| South Africa | 9.0% | — | $9K | active |
| Taiwan | 16.9% | -0.2pp | $10K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes both agreements that become law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or through the enactment of a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed into law by the President. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
8%
8%
21%
14%
20%
16%