Loading the latest market intelligence…
Last recorded probability
0%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a State of Siege (“Estado de Sitio”) in Chile enters into effect at any point between this market’s creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a “State of Siege” as defined by Article 40 of the Chilean Constitution, i.e., it must not be rejected by the National Congress within five days of the President submitting the declaration (after which Congressional approval is deemed granted if no decision is issued). Only declarations explicitly constituting an “Estado de Sitio” under Chile’s constitutional states of exception will count. If the legal name of the “Estado de Sitio” state of exception changes via constitutional reform but retains the same essential powers, it may qualify. A declaration of a “State of Emergency” (Estado de Emergencia) or “State of Catastrophe” (Estado de Catástrofe) will not count. If a region is under a State of Emergency and is subsequently upgraded to a State of Siege, the market resolves "Yes" once the State of Siege takes effect as described above. A decree applying to any province or region of Chile will qualify. The primary resolution source will be the Diario Oficial de la República de Chile (www.diariooficial.cl). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC