Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
0%
-0.3ppProbability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.2pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is very low and 24h volume is $5K. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Get an email when this market has a meaningful stored probability move or appears in the Daily Brief.
Spain snap election called in 2025?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Spanish general election is scheduled between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for the next Spanish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Spain however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC
Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.
0%
-0.3pp100%
+0.5pp2%
1%
1%
-0.1pp1%
-0.5pp