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Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+0.1pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthropic | 87.5% | — | $22K | active |
| Anduril Industries | 8.5% | — | $3K | active |
| ByteDance | 5.5% | -1.0pp | $1K | active |
| OpenAI | 17.0% | +0.5pp | $14K | active |
| Ledger | 8.5% | -1.0pp | $787 | active |
| Rippling | 9.5% | -1.5pp | $238 | active |
| Ramp | 8.5% | — | $2K | active |
| Glean | 8.5% | — | $3K | active |
| Vanta | 6.5% | — | $3K | active |
| Databricks | 7.0% | — | $358 | active |
| Discord | 28.9% | +0.3pp | $2K | active |
| Anduril | 7.0% | — | $2K | active |
| Stripe | 2.5% | +0.05pp | $4K | active |
| Freddie Mac | 2.5% | +0.8pp | $1K | active |
| Brex | 0.9% | — | $3K | active |
| Celonis | 7.5% | -0.5pp | $332 | active |
| Applied Intuition | 12.0% | -0.1pp | $1K | active |
| Fannie Mae | 6.5% | — | $5K | active |
| Mistral AI | 7.0% | — | $4K | active |
| Ripple Labs | 5.5% | — | $964 | active |
| Deel | 4.5% | — | $5K | active |
| SHEIN | 98.0% | +1.0pp | $2K | active |
| Anysphere (Cursor) | 0.7% | — | $693 | active |
| Epic Games | 5.3% | -0.05pp | $2K | active |
| Revolut | 5.5% | — | $2K | active |
| Remote | 16.5% | +1.0pp | $203 | active |
| Waymo | 3.0% | — | $1K | active |
| Canva | 3.9% | — | $1K | active |
| WHOOP | 6.5% | — | $3K | active |
| xAI | 0.0% | -12.4pp | $0 | resolved |
| Once Upon a Farm | 100.0% | +0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| Wealthfront | 100.0% | +0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| SpaceX | 100.0% | +0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| Cerebras | 100.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.