Loading the latest market intelligence…
Final recorded probability
100%Final outcome: Yes
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
100%
24h Change
+4.7pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total crypto hack value in 2026 exceeds the amount specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The resolution source for this market is DefiLlama, specifically the hacks page available at: https://defillama.com/hacks The total value will be calculated as the sum of all “Amount lost” entries for incidents dated in 2026. If the data is revised before the threshold is hit, the latest numbers will be used. If the data becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using other credible crypto data sources.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| >$1.5B | 91.5% | — | $773 | active |
| >$3.5B | 7.0% | +0.5pp | $509 | active |
| >$4B | 4.0% | +1.0pp | $1K | active |
| >$3B | 8.5% | — | $147 | active |
| >$2.5B | 9.5% | — | $245 | active |
| >$2B | 43.0% | -1.5pp | $36 | active |
| >$800M | 100.0% | +4.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| >$1B | 100.0% | +3.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| >$1.2B | 100.0% | +0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.