Sport
Signal: LowMarket data current
Over $200B wagered on US sports betting in 2026?
25%
Limited history+1.0pp
Lifetime volume $21KCloses 1 Jan 2027
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Current implied probability
66%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
66%
24h Change
+0.7pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.7pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $120 and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| >$160B | 66.1% | +0.7pp | $120 | active |
| >$200B | 24.5% | +1.0pp | $114 | active |
| >$180B | 47.5% | +0.5pp | $38 | active |
| >$140B | 71.5% | +0.4pp | $166 | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total amount wagered on U.S. sports betting in 2026 is greater than the number specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source will be Legal Sports Report (https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sports-betting-states/revenue/), using the “U.S. sports betting revenue by month” table. The annual data will be calculated by summing the values in the “Handle” column for all months in 2026 once the relevant information is available. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable sources
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
25%
48%
72%