EAEventAlpha
Crypto

o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh-33.0pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (down 33.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is down 33.0pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.1%
No implied probability
100.0%
Liquidity
$6K
Market Activity
$13K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
18 Jun 2026, 21:42 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 23 Jun 2026, 19:57 UTC

What this market asks

o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch?

Current market read

This market asks whether o1's governance token will have a fully diluted valuation above $700M one day after launch. The current market-implied probability is 0.05. It is a grouped outcome market, so this outcome's market activity reflects trading on the $700M outcome only, not the wider event.

Key takeaways

  • This outcome's market activity shows relatively low volume and liquidity.
  • The latest snapshot shows a sharp 24h move in the stored market-implied probability.
  • As a grouped outcome, the figures apply only to the $700M outcome within the broader event.

Risks & uncertainties

  • The current market-implied probability is based on a single stored snapshot.
  • Resolution depends on a future token launch and the described FDV calculation.
  • No separate resolution-source field is stored; the description provides the resolution details.

Resolution summary

The market resolves to "Yes" if the fully diluted valuation of o1's governance token is greater than $700M 1 day after launch, and to "No" otherwise. A launch counts only if the token is actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is defined here as total token supply multiplied by token price, and "1 day after launch" means 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. No separate resolution-source field is stored; resolution details are based on the market description.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC

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