EAEventAlpha
Crypto

o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch?

100%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+31.9pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 31.9pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

100%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 31.9pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
100.0%
No implied probability
0.0%
Liquidity
$11K
Market Activity
$9K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
18 Jun 2026, 21:42 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 23 Jun 2026, 19:57 UTC

What this market asks

o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch?

Current market read

This market asks whether o1's governance token has a fully diluted valuation above $500M one day after launch. The current market-implied probability is 99.95%, with 24h movement of 31.95 and 24h volume of 6,351.434694. This is one outcome market within the broader event "o1 FDV above ___ one day after launch?", so the volume and liquidity shown reflect this outcome's market activity only.

Key takeaways

  • Current market-implied probability is very high at 99.95%.
  • 24h movement is large at 31.95, suggesting notable recent activity.
  • This outcome's market activity shows moderate volume and liquidity for the specific $500M outcome.

Risks & uncertainties

  • This is one outcome market within a multi-outcome event, so figures do not represent the wider event.
  • Resolution source is not separately stored; the description provides the resolution rules.
  • The market depends on launch status, token transferability, and FDV calculation details stated in the description.

Resolution summary

The market resolves to Yes if the fully diluted valuation of o1's governance token is greater than $500M one day after launch, defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to count as a launch. FDV is determined as total token supply multiplied by token price. If o1 does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. No separate resolution-source field is stored; resolution details are based on the market description.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC

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