EAEventAlpha
Crypto

o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch?

100%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+9.9pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 9.9pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

100%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is up 9.9pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
100.0%
No implied probability
0.0%
Liquidity
$48K
Market Activity
$19K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
18 Jun 2026, 21:42 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 23 Jun 2026, 22:24 UTC

What this market asks

o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch?

Current market read

This market asks whether o1’s governance token will have a fully diluted valuation above $400M one day after launch. The current market-implied probability is 99.95%, with 24h movement of +9.95 points. It is a grouped outcome market, so the volume and liquidity shown here reflect this outcome's market activity only, not the wider event.

Key takeaways

  • Current market-implied probability is very high at 99.95%.
  • 24h movement is positive at +9.95 points.
  • This outcome's market activity shows moderate volume and liquidity.

Risks & uncertainties

  • This is one outcome within a multi-outcome event, so the figures shown are for this outcome's market activity only.
  • Resolution depends on the token being actively, publicly transferable and tradable, which is defined in the description.
  • The resolution source field is null, so the description is the only stored source for resolution details.

Resolution summary

The market resolves to Yes if the fully diluted valuation of o1's governance token is greater than $400M 1 day after launch, and to No otherwise. The description says launch means the token is actively, publicly transferable and tradable, and FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. No separate resolution-source field is stored; resolution details are based on the market description. If o1 does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC

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