EAEventAlpha
Crypto

o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?

100%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+8.9pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 8.9pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

100%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is up 8.9pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
100.0%
No implied probability
0.0%
Liquidity
$49K
Market Activity
$39K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
18 Jun 2026, 21:42 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 23 Jun 2026, 22:24 UTC

What this market asks

o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Current market read

This market is one outcome in a multi-outcome event about whether o1's governance token FDV is above $300M one day after launch. The current market-implied probability is 99.95%, with recent 24h movement of 8.95% and recorded volume and liquidity on this outcome's market activity. The market is active and set to close on 2028-01-01T05:00:00.000Z.

Key takeaways

  • This outcome's market activity shows relatively high current market-implied probability.
  • Recent 24h movement is positive at 8.95%.
  • Recorded volume and liquidity indicate active trading on this specific outcome market.

Risks & uncertainties

  • This is one outcome within a multi-outcome event, so the figures reflect this outcome's market activity only.
  • The resolution source field is null, although the description states the most liquid price source will be used.
  • The market depends on whether a token launch occurs and on the FDV measured one day after launch.

Resolution summary

This market resolves to Yes if the fully diluted valuation of o1's governance token is greater than $300M one day after launch, where FDV is defined as total token supply multiplied by token price. The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to count as a launch, and "1 day after launch" means 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source is stated in the description as the most liquid price source available. If o1 does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC

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