EAEventAlpha
Crypto

o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?

100%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+3.4pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 3.4pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

100%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability changed modestly over 24h. The recorded move is up 3.4pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
100.0%
No implied probability
0.0%
Liquidity
$52K
Market Activity
$100K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
18 Jun 2026, 21:42 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 23 Jun 2026, 22:24 UTC

What this market asks

o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?

Current market read

This market asks whether o1's governance token will have a fully diluted valuation above $200M one day after launch. The stored description says the token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to count as a launch, and FDV is calculated as total token supply multiplied by token price. The current market-implied probability is 99.95%, with 24h movement of 3.4% and 24h volume of 41,881.24898000001.

Key takeaways

  • This outcome's market activity shows very high current market-implied probability at 99.95%.
  • 24h movement is positive at 3.4%, suggesting recent upward price action in this outcome market.
  • Volume and liquidity are both present, with 24h volume of 41,881.24898000001 and liquidity of 51,606.70488.

Risks & uncertainties

  • This is one outcome market within a multi-outcome event, so the volume and liquidity reflect this outcome's market activity only.
  • The resolution source field is null, so the stored description is the only available basis for resolution details.
  • The market is still active and not closed, so the final outcome remains unresolved.

Resolution summary

This market resolves to Yes if the fully diluted valuation of o1's governance token is greater than $200M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. Launch is defined in the description as the token being actively, publicly transferable and tradable. If o1 does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No. No separate resolution-source field is stored; resolution details are based on the market description.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of o1's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If o1 (https://x.com/o1_exchange) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC

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