EAEventAlpha
Politics

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?

8%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTCStable consensus

Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

8%

24h Change

Not enough history

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

16

0%25%50%75%100%6:0010:0014:0017:0021:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
7.5%
No implied probability
92.5%
Liquidity
$11K
Market Activity
$681
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 20:59 UTC
View on Polymarket

Follow with Market Radar

Get an email when this market has a meaningful stored probability move or appears in the Daily Brief.

Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

Legislative elections are expected to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu announces that he will not run for reelection to the Israeli Knesset in this election by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only definitive announcements will count. Suggestions, statements of consideration, or other non-definitive statements will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC

Related Markets

Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.