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Finance

Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027?

4%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTCStable consensus+0.6pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 0.6pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

4%

24h Change

+0.6pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

7

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun3 Jul4 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.6pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
4.0%
No implied probability
96.0%
Liquidity
$3K
Market Activity
$17K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 02:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk ceases to be CEO of Tesla for any length of time between November 11, 2025, and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Elon Musk's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla and/or Elon Musk, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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