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Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
0.0pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Mike Johnson announces that he will resign from his position as Speaker of the US House of Representatives, or otherwise ceases to be Speaker for any length of time, between April 9, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that an announcement of his resignation before the resolution date will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of if/when he actually steps down. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the United States of America or official statements by Mike Johnson or his representative, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2025, 12:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 9.0% | — | $10K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 4.0% | — | $9K | active |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 31, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.