Crypto
Signal: LowMarket data current
Metamask FDV above $300M one day after launch?
8%
Limited history-4.5pp
24h activity $357Closes 1 Jan 2027
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Current implied probability
7%Recent probability movement (down 11.5pp) is strong, with acceptable but not deep market activity.
Signal: MediumCurrent
7%
24h Change
-11.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability moved strongly over 24h. The recorded move is down 11.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $100M | 7.0% | -11.5pp | $19K | active |
| $300M | 7.5% | -4.5pp | $12K | active |
| $700M | 7.3% | -0.3pp | $16K | active |
| $500M | 7.0% | -0.5pp | $8K | active |
| $1B | 8.0% | -1.0pp | $14K | active |
| $4B | 2.5% | -0.3pp | $15K | active |
| $2B | 4.5% | -0.1pp | $14K | active |
| $3B | 3.6% | -0.1pp | $16K | active |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Metamask's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Metamask doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 1 Jan 2027, 05:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
8%
7%
7%
8%
2%
4%