Politics
Signal: MediumMarket data current
Meloni out as Prime Minister of Italy by July 31?
0%
Limited history
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Current implied probability
50%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
50%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
7
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 0.1% | — |
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
0%
| $21K |
| active |
| September 30 | 50.0% | — | $2 | active |
| December 31 | 10.0% | — | $14K | active |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Giorgia Meloni ceases to be the Prime Minister of Italy for any period of time between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Giorgia Melon's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Italy, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC
10%