US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
100%
+0.5ppSignal quality is low because the market data is stale.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
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Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mahmoud Abbas ceases to be President of the Palestinian National Authority for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mahmoud Abbas's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian National Authority; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC
Markets with overlapping topics, entities, or events.
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