Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Lecornu out as French PM by September 30, 2026?
3%
Limited history-0.3pp
Lifetime volume $7KCloses 30 Sept 2026
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Current implied probability
22%Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
22%
24h Change
+0.5pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Signal quality is low because market activity is limited; liquidity is $10K and 24h activity is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 22.0% | +0.5pp | $10K | active |
| September 30, 2026 | 2.6% | -0.3pp | $10K | active |
| August 31, 2026 | 0.8% | — | $12K | active |
| October 31 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| November 30 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sébastien Lecornu ceases to be Prime Minister of France for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Sébastien Lecornu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Sébastien Lecornu and the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
3%
1%