Loading the latest market intelligence…
Last recorded probability
99%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
99%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a leadership election for the UK-wide Leader of the Labour Party is scheduled by the specified date, ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market is about whether a date for any Labour Party leadership election is announced within this market's timeframe. Whether the election is supposed to take place within this market's timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution to this market. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Labour Party, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 99.0% | — | $34K | awaiting resolution |
| December 31, 2026 | 99.5% | +0.2pp | $22K | awaiting resolution |
| July 31 | 99.5% | +0.3pp | $18K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.