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Geopolitics

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

0%Synced 9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTCResolution update-0.2pp (24h)
Resolved market — this move reflects resolution, not a fresh probability signal.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

0%

Movement Read

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Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.2pp. Signal quality is low because liquidity is limited; liquidity is very low and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.0%
No implied probability
100.0%
Liquidity
Not available
Market Activity
$17.4M
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
9 Jul 2026, 23:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kharg Island is no longer under Iranian control by April 30, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". “No longer under the control of Iran” means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Kharg Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island. Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established. If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island. If control over Kharg Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Apr 2026, 23:55 UTC

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