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Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Probability history will appear after additional syncs.
0%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the sitting Israeli Knesset (Israel's parliament), as of this market's inception, is dissolved between September 20 and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2025, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 16 | 98.0% | +27.7pp | $53K | awaiting resolution |
| July 31 | 98.7% | -0.1pp | $41K | awaiting resolution |
| July 17 | 97.6% | +4.9pp | $13K | awaiting resolution |
| October 31 | 0.0% | -0.05pp | $0 | resolved |
| December 31 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| July 15 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | -0.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 15 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.