EAEventAlpha
Geopolitics

Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh

Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Current

0%

24h Change

-0.6pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

2

0%25%50%75%100%30 Jun2 Jul

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.

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Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.3%
No implied probability
99.7%
Liquidity
$43K
Market Activity
$151K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
2 Jul 2026, 21:52 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

On October 9, 2025 Israel and Hamas signed a deal implementing a ceasefire: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israel-hamas-agree-gaza-ceasefire-return-hostages-2025-10-09/ This market will resolve to "Yes" if a either Israel or Hamas announce the cancellation of the ongoing ceasefire, or if a consensus of credible reporting confirms that the ceasefire is no longer in effect, by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". Announcements that one side or another violated the ongoing ceasefire will not be enough to resolve this market to "Yes"; only a definitive announcement by Israel or Hamas, or otherwise a wide consensus of credible reporting that that the ceasefire has been ended, will qualify to resolve this market to "Yes". The primary solution resolution source will be official information from Hamas or the government of Israel, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 30 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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