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Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
-0.2pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 16.5% | -1.0pp | $277K | active |
| August 22 | 0.3% | -0.1pp | $45K | active |
| August 31 | 1.1% | -0.05pp | $102K | active |
| October 31 | 7.5% | -2.0pp | $80K | active |
| June 30, 2027 | 25.5% | -1.0pp | $58K | active |
| November 30 | 10.0% | -1.5pp | $53K | active |
| September 30 | 4.5% | — | $124K | active |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -0.7pp | $0 | resolved |
| April 30 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| March 31 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| August 15 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| March 13 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.