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Last recorded probability
100%Trading is no longer treated as active while the final result is pending. The figures below are historical and excluded from live rankings and signals.
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100%
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market) Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify. For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 13 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 9 | 100.0% | +2.3pp | $77K | awaiting resolution |
| July 8 | 0.1% | -1.5pp | $36K | awaiting resolution |
| July 6 | 0.1% | -0.5pp | $29K | awaiting resolution |
| July 7 | 0.1% | -7.8pp | $7K | awaiting resolution |
| July 10 | 100.0% | +0.8pp | $191K | awaiting resolution |
| July 15 | 100.0% | +0.4pp | $51K | awaiting resolution |
| July 3 | 0.1% | -0.3pp | $19K | awaiting resolution |
| July 13 | 100.0% | +0.6pp | $63K | awaiting resolution |
| July 24 | 100.0% | +0.2pp | $51K | awaiting resolution |
| July 17 | 100.0% | +0.4pp | $174K | awaiting resolution |
| July 31 | 100.0% | +0.3pp | $204K | awaiting resolution |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.