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Final recorded probability
0%Final outcome: No
This market is final. The figures below are retained as a historical record and are excluded from live rankings and signals.
Final / last recorded
0%
24h Change
-0.3pp
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
100
Final or last-recorded Polymarket figures retained for historical reference.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
Historical probability path. Live movement analysis is not shown for this market status.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared by October 17, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of France; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 18 Oct 2025, 03:59 UTC
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 4.3% | -0.3pp | $11K | active |
| October 10 | 0.0% | -1.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 17 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 31, 2025 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 15 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| November 30, 2025 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.0% | -0.6pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.