Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
French election called by July 31, 2026?
1%
Limited history
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Current implied probability
27%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: LowThis market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
27%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
9
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
Investigate pack
Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 27.0% | — | $528 |
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
1%
| active |
| July 31, 2026 | 0.6% | +0.5pp | $7K | active |
| October 10 | 0.0% | -1.5pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 17 | 0.0% | -0.3pp | $0 | resolved |
| October 31, 2025 | 0.0% | -0.2pp | $0 | resolved |
| September 15 | 0.0% | -0.1pp | $0 | resolved |
| December 31, 2025 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| November 30, 2025 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
| June 30, 2026 | 0.0% | — | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date of the next French legislative election is declared between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the France, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC