Politics
Signal: LowMarket data current
Evo Morales arrested by July 31?
4%
Limited history-0.05pp
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This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.
Current
50%
24h Change
Not enough history
7D Change
Not enough history
30D Change
Not enough history
Snapshots
9
Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.
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Movement read, related outcomes, resolution rules, and context in one place. Verify live prices on Polymarket before relying on any figure.
This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.
24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.
Source event comparison
Grouped because Polymarket supplied the same event identifier. Inactive outcomes are retained for context, not promoted as live signals.
| Outcome | Probability | 24h change | Liquidity | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| July 31 | 4.0% | -0.05pp | $65 |
Competing outcomes linked by the same source event (source confidence).
4%
Current implied probability
50%24h probability change is not available. Treat current pricing as a snapshot until more history accumulates.
Signal: Low| active |
| September 30 | 50.0% | — | $2 | active |
| May 31 | 0.0% | -12.8pp | $0 | resolved |
| June 30 | 0.0% | -2.3pp | $0 | resolved |
Probability sum: Unavailable — source structure does not establish mutually exclusive, exhaustive outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Evo Morales, former President of Bolivia, is arrested or detained by law enforcement between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.
This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.
Market close time (source timestamp): 30 Sept 2026, 00:00 UTC