EAEventAlpha
Crypto

Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?

78%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+38.0pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 38.0pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

78%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 38.0pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
78.0%
No implied probability
22.0%
Liquidity
$10K
Market Activity
$43K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
26 Jun 2026, 22:38 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 26 Jun 2026, 22:48 UTC

What this market asks

Cap FDV above $250M one day after launch?

Current market read

This market asks whether Cap’s governance token will have a fully diluted valuation above $250M one day after launch. The current market-implied probability is 78%, with a 24h movement of 38 percentage points. It is one outcome in the broader event "Cap FDV above ___ one day after launch?", and the volume and liquidity shown are for this outcome’s market activity only.

Key takeaways

  • Current market-implied probability is relatively high at 78%.
  • 24h movement is large at 38 percentage points.
  • Trading activity is specific to this outcome’s market, with volume and liquidity shown for the $250M outcome only.

Risks & uncertainties

  • This is one outcome within a multi-outcome event, so the figures do not represent the wider event’s combined activity.
  • Resolution depends on launch timing, tradability, and FDV at a specific time, which adds uncertainty.
  • No separate resolution-source field is stored; resolution details are based on the market description.

Resolution summary

The market resolves to Yes if Cap’s governance token has an FDV greater than $250M at 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day after launch. Launch means the token is actively, publicly transferable and tradable. FDV is defined as total token supply multiplied by token price. The resolution source is the most liquid price source available. If Cap does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Cap's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Cap (https://x.com/capmoney_) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC

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