EAEventAlpha
Politics

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

83%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+18.5pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 18.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

83%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved noticeably over 24h. The recorded move is up 18.5pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
83.0%
No implied probability
17.0%
Liquidity
$4K
Market Activity
$236K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
25 Jun 2026, 22:20 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 25 Jun 2026, 00:00 UTC

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