EAEventAlpha
Crypto

Ben Pasternak jailed?

3%Synced 4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTCHigh activity-0.4pp (24h)

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable.

Signal: Low

Low-confidence movement

This market has limited liquidity/activity, so recent probability moves may be distorted by small trades or sparse updates.

Current

3%

24h Change

-0.4pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

7

0%25%50%75%100%22:0023:000:002:003:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is down 0.4pp. Signal quality is low because 24h volume is unavailable; liquidity is $3K and 24h volume is unavailable. Treat this as low-confidence and verify on Polymarket.

Low liquidity can exaggerate probability moves. Treat this as a weak signal unless confirmed by higher volume or external context.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
2.9%
No implied probability
97.2%
Liquidity
$3K
Market Activity
$51K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
4 Jul 2026, 03:01 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ben Pasternak serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between market creation and December 31, 2026 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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