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Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

1%Synced 6 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTCStable consensus+0.5pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 0.5pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Current

1%

24h Change

+0.5pp

7D Change

Not enough history

30D Change

Not enough history

Snapshots

9

0%25%50%75%100%16:0018:0020:0022:000:00

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability is mostly stable over 24h. The recorded move is up 0.5pp. Activity is moderate — the move is plausible but not fully confirmed by deep liquidity.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
1.3%
No implied probability
98.8%
Liquidity
$64K
Market Activity
$22K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
6 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC
View on Polymarket

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Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Jul 2026, 00:00 UTC

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