EAEventAlpha
Crypto

Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?

94%Stale dataStale / needs refresh+49.3pp (24h)

Recent probability movement (up 49.3pp) is moderate, with acceptable but not deep market activity.

Signal: Medium

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

94%

Movement Read

This page helps you check whether the move is fresh, meaningful, low-confidence, or near resolution before opening the source market.

Probability moved sharply over 24h. The recorded move is up 49.3pp. EventAlpha snapshot history is still sparse — use Polymarket volume/liquidity as the primary confidence check.

Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
94.3%
No implied probability
5.8%
Liquidity
$5K
Market Activity
$27K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
23 Jun 2026, 19:46 UTC
View on Polymarket

AI Market Brief

AI brief generated from stored market data at 3 Jul 2026, 19:33 UTC

What this market asks

Arcium FDV above $300M one day after launch?

Current market read

This market asks whether Arcium’s token FDV will be above $300M one day after launch. It is a crypto market tied to the specific outcome "$300M" within the broader event "Arcium FDV above ___ one day after launch?". The current market-implied probability is 94.25%, with 24h movement of 49.25 percentage points.

Key takeaways

  • This outcome's market activity shows 24h volume of 11,028.733188 and total volume of 27,051.781612000017.
  • Liquidity is 5,119.9424, which may affect how easily this outcome trades.
  • The current market-implied probability is high at 94.25%, with a large 24h move of 49.25 percentage points.

Risks & uncertainties

  • This is one outcome market within a grouped event, so the volume and liquidity shown apply only to the $300M outcome.
  • Resolution depends on the token launch and the FDV calculation at the specified time; those future inputs are not yet known.
  • No separate resolution-source field is stored; resolution details are based on the market description.

Resolution summary

The market resolves to Yes if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arcium's token is greater than $300M one day after launch, defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. Only an official token launched by Arcium counts; stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs, and synthetic tokens do not. FDV is determined as total token supply multiplied by token price, using the most liquid price source available. If Arcium does not launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.

Built from stored Polymarket market data. No external news feed.

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Arcium's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." Only an official token launched by Arcium will qualify. Stablecoins, memecoins, LSTs and synthetic tokens will not count. The token must be actively and publicly tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Arcium (https://x.com/Arcium) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 1 Jan 2028, 05:00 UTC

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