Politics
MediumFresh
Lecornu out as French PM by July 31, 2026?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
1%
-5.8ppVol $218Closes 31 Jul 2026
Category
Politics
Elections, policy outcomes, and legislative probability intelligence.
3,651 markets in scope in this category.
Showing 36 of 360 matching politics markets.
Showing 253-288 of 360 markets.
Markets in this category
Active markets ranked by recent activity and liquidity.
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Mallory McMorrow win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
1%
Vol $213Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Left Party (V) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.1ppVol $201Closes 13 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Christian Democrats (KD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $201Closes 13 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Citizens' Coalition (MED) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $201Closes 13 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Centre Party (C) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $201Closes 13 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the Liberals (L) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $201Closes 13 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Rodina win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+1.1pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-1.1ppVol $185Closes 20 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ronaldo Caiado finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.3ppVol $181Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Don Ufford be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.4pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.4ppVol $179Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Alexander Rikleen be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $179Closes 1 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Ayanna Pressley be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.3pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.3ppVol $165Closes 1 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Kim Jong Un be the next leader out before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
0%
+0.1ppVol $165Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Andy Levin be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.05ppVol $159Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.05ppVol $132Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Israel strike 13 countries in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $126Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
LowStale data
Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?
Excluded from lead ranking because data is stale.
Stale / needs refresh
0%
Vol $124Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $100Closes 30 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Roberto Cláudio win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.05ppVol $100Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $97Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.75% at the end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.05ppVol $89Closes 9 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Israel strike 12 countries in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $87Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $87Closes 31 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $83Closes 4 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Macron out by July 31, 2026?
Resolution watch: market is near-certain and close to deadline — not a fresh probability signal.
Resolution watch
1%
-0.3ppVol $81Closes 31 Jul 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Diann Slavit Baylis be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.5ppVol $75Closes 15 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Rick Jakious be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
0%
+0.05ppVol $75Closes 15 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Jamie Zahlaway Belsito be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.9pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.9ppVol $75Closes 15 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.5ppVol $75Closes 15 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will John Beccia be the Democratic nominee for MA-06?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.5pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.5ppVol $75Closes 15 Sept 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 1.5% at the end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $70Closes 9 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Anthony Carbonaro be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $70Closes 4 Aug 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Sociāldemokrātiskā Partija “Saskaņa” (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $69Closes 3 Oct 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Nicole Shanahan win the California Governor Election in 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (0.0pp).
Stable consensus
0%
Vol $67Closes 3 Nov 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 2.0% at the end of 2026?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.05pp).
Stable consensus
0%
-0.05ppVol $65Closes 9 Dec 2026
Politics
MediumFresh
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027?
Stable consensus — high liquidity but negligible 24h move (+0.1pp).
Stable consensus
1%
-0.1ppVol $60Closes 31 Dec 2026
Avg 24h move 1.6pp383 markets with notable movementCombined activity $12.7M
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