EAEventAlpha
Politics

Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026?

0%Stale dataStale / needs refresh

Signal quality is low because the market data is stale.

Signal: Low

Probability history will appear after additional syncs.

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Movement Read

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Market Snapshot — read-only

Implied probabilities from synced Polymarket data. EventAlpha does not support trading.

Yes implied probability
0.2%
No implied probability
99.8%
Liquidity
$13K
Market Activity
$12K
Data Source
Polymarket
Last Synced
30 Jun 2026, 20:18 UTC
View on Polymarket

Resolution Rules

Resolves Yes if …

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify. If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No". Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify. The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolves No if …

No otherwise — if the Yes condition is not satisfied by the resolution criteria.

Important caveats

This market resolves according to the source market rules. Review the source market before relying on this interpretation.

Resolution deadline: 31 Dec 2026, 00:00 UTC

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